NFL Week 9 2026 Picks and NBA Cup Bets

Episode Summary

A third-string quarterback on a short week, a Sunday night test for the 6-2 Bears, and a 49ers game that could turn into a shootout headline Matt Ross and Dan Nedelko’s NFL Week 9 2026 picks in Episode 116. The hosts also look back at what went right and wrong last week, from Lamar Jackson’s early exit to the Chiefs’ second straight loss, and they close with NBA Cup futures and Friday night bets. Dan, COO of TSMx.io, returns for what has become a regular partnership.

Last Week’s Results

Matt and Dan open by looking back at their calls from last week.

• Panthers vs. Packers (Thursday): Dan had been tough on Green Bay. He calls the result a nail-biter that he did not nail confidently, and he gives Carolina credit for a scrappy game. The Packers did not look great.
• Ravens vs. Bills: Dan won this bet before it really began. Lamar Jackson was hurt within seconds of kickoff, backup Tyler Huntley followed, and third-stringer Joe Fagnano ended up playing. Dan reports that Jackson is out with thumb surgery and headed to injured reserve, and that Huntley has turf toe. He raises the possibility of Joe Flacco joining the Ravens.
• Vikings vs. Lions: Both hosts liked Detroit, and the Lions won a hard-fought game at home, cashing the moneyline. Dan takes some humble pie for underestimating how well the Vikings’ defense would hold up. He says Kyler Murray did not have a great showing and floats the idea that Justin Jefferson may eventually want out. Murray is questionable this week.
• Knicks vs. 76ers: Matt lost this one. The game finished 98-93 against a total of 191, far lower than expected, and Dan reminds listeners that a number that looks too good to be true at a sportsbook usually is. The Knicks did pick up a win over the Nets this week, while the 76ers have only one loss. Dan is 4-1 on the show, and he jokingly tells Matt to start selling picks.

On the rest of the Week 8 slate, the Chiefs lost their second straight game to Denver and are now 5-2, and the Vikings’ perfect run is over. Matt says teams are keying in on Kenneth Walker rather than dropping into dime coverage against Patrick Mahomes. Dan calls the Denver game a chess match between Andy Reid and Sean Payton. Elsewhere, Cincinnati beat Tennessee 43-36 in overtime, which both hosts take as proof that neither team can stop anybody. Arizona beat the Cowboys 33-30, dropping Dallas to 3-5, and Dan compares the Cowboys to Tottenham, a team with plenty of talent and money that never seems to gel. On Monday night, the Bears moved to 6-2 with a win over the Seahawks, who fell to 4-4. Matt notes it is Chicago’s best start in over a decade and that Caleb Williams looked great after returning. Dan adds that Sam Darnold looked shaky and that Ben Johnson brings an aggressive, intimidating energy.

Dan’s Market Primer

Before the NFL Week 9 2026 picks, Dan explains in a new segment how opening odds work. A traditional sportsbook typically opens at -110 on both sides, which builds in roughly a 4.5 percent commission, so the book makes money no matter what happens. TSMx instead pulls consensus Vegas odds and removes the vig, so reference odds usually start near even. Those are only suggestions, and users can turn them off and set their own prices. As make orders come in, the “top of book” on each event card updates.

He uses Ravens at Jaguars as the example. TSMx’s reference line opened with Baltimore around -139 and Jacksonville around +140, a result of what Dan calls his long-standing skepticism about the Ravens. After Sunday, public books moved the Jaguars to roughly -535. A TSMx user could set a price anywhere from -300 to -600. But Dan reminds bettors that a make order is only useful if someone is willing to take the other side, so a heavily lopsided price may never get matched. Matt connects this back to the main TSMx difference: no vig, just a small transaction fee, like PayPal.

NFL Week 9 2026 Picks: Thursday and Sunday Games

Ravens at Jaguars (Thursday). The Jaguars are around -9 at public books, with an implied win probability near 80 percent at one book. Matt and Dan both believe Jacksonville is the better team and a likely double-digit winner. Matt plays devil’s advocate, noting that Fagnano went 10 of 21 and threw an interception after getting almost no practice snaps, and that Derrick Henry cannot carry the offense alone. Dan wants to give the Ravens some grace, since they lost two quarterbacks in a game and had a short week to adjust. He sees value in the spread, possibly a 10-point game, and suggests a TSMx spread of around -14 for Jacksonville is debatable. Both hosts expect a run-heavy Baltimore game plan built around Justice Hill, Mark Andrews, and short throws to Zay Flowers. Dan does not plan to bet the moneyline, and Matt notes Baltimore is available at around +450.

Buccaneers at Bears (Sunday Night Football, NBC). Chicago is a 6 to 6.5-point favorite at home with a total of 46.5. The Buccaneers did not throw a single pass last week in torrential rain against Atlanta, the first time that has happened in the NFL since 1974. Matt finds it odd that a spread under a touchdown pairs with a total this high. Dan thinks bookmakers are steering bettors toward the moneyline to balance their books. He sees little value overall, with Tampa Bay too inconsistent to trust, and leans under on the total.

Raiders at 49ers. Matt, a 49ers fan, is wary of the total of 51.5. San Francisco is coming off a bye week with injury questions at receiver and on the defensive line, including Mike Evans and Nick Bosa. He likes the 49ers at -9, though he says he will watch practice reports closely. Dan is skeptical of the pricing, with Bet365 at 49ers -550 and Raiders +400 against a TSMx fair open of -455 and +463. He expects a shootout with Kirk Cousins either throwing for a big day or throwing multiple interceptions, and he suggests the Raiders moneyline as a risk-reward upset play. Matt notes Las Vegas just played a 71-point game against the Jets.

Cowboys at Colts. The total is 51.5. The Colts traded away two players this week and are viewed as a team on life support heading toward the trade deadline. Matt takes Dallas. Dan takes the Cowboys to cover and expects a win by at least a touchdown, but leans to the under because he does not think Indianapolis can score. He adds that finding someone to take the Colts side of a TSMx order might be the hard part.

Rapid Fire NFL Week 9 2026 Picks

Dan runs through the rest of the board for quick picks from Matt. Matt takes Jacksonville over Baltimore, New Orleans over Cleveland, Dallas over Indianapolis, Detroit, the Rams over Washington, the Giants over Philadelphia, and Kansas City over the Jets. He takes the Chargers over Houston for the first time this season, citing a boost for Justin Herbert. He also takes Seattle over Arizona, San Francisco over Las Vegas, New England over Green Bay, and Chicago over Tampa Bay. His final call is that the Vikings lose a second straight game, with Buffalo on top.

NBA Notes and Futures

Matt starts with the news. Memphis lost after a 6-0 start, and Ty Jerome has been their driver. The 76ers are the story of the league because of their star power, but Matt says the team people are sleeping on is Detroit. The Pistons had the East’s top record last year, brought back Jalen Duren at the last moment, and Matt expects them to be a top-three team by season’s end. Dan agrees, adding the Celtics, Raptors, Pistons, and Nuggets as teams with upset capability, while noting the 76ers’ age is a question.

Last week’s Rockets longshot at +900 to win the West looks better. Houston beat Boston by double digits on the second night of a back-to-back and without Paul George, even though Kevin Durant took only six shots. Matt also apologizes to the Warriors. Rookie Yaxel Lindenberg scored 37 points and has changed the team’s trajectory. Draymond Green was ejected in a recent game, and Jimmy Butler could return late in the year. Matt calls them a play-in team to be wary of if Stephen Curry stays healthy. Curry also passed Dominique Wilkins for 18th all-time in scoring.

On NBA Cup futures, the Spurs are +400 at several places. Matt flags the Pistons at +800 to +1400 depending on the book as a disrespected price, and notes the Thunder range from +350 to +700 while dealing with injuries. Dan thinks many of the numbers are inflated, since the Cup is neither the regular season nor the playoffs, and some teams will care about it more than others. He points out that Fanatics (+350), Fox Sports (+500), and FanDuel (+700) offer very different prices for the same team because they target different types of customers. His suggestion is to place a make order and get others to take your side, or even to tail FanDuel as the bookie.

NBA Cup Games

Thunder at Grizzlies (Friday). Memphis is banged up, with rookie Cam Boozer, Ty Jerome, and Zach Edey carrying the load, and the matchup is essentially Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against everyone else. Dan explains TSMx’s pitch: whatever price you see at a book, TSMx will give you a point and a half better without the 4.5 percent charge, and it currently offers a 100 percent match guarantee on make orders during its early days.

76ers at Cavaliers (Friday, Prime Video). Matt likes Philadelphia on the road. He thinks Cleveland is solid but not a Cup or title contender, and he notes the 76ers have LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and rookie V.J. Edgecombe. Dan points out that Philadelphia is the second-best fourth-quarter team and the worst first-quarter team, so first-quarter and first-half lines could hold value. TSMx expects to launch quarter and half lines within two to three weeks.

Heat at Warriors (Thursday, 10 PM, NBA TV). Matt takes the Warriors on the moneyline. He says the Heat have no depth and are one of the league’s worst defensive teams, and that Bam Adebayo is struggling on offense. Draymond Green’s possible suspension is still unknown.

Trailblazers at Lakers. Matt takes the Lakers, noting that Luka Doncic’s worst game in his last five was 37 points and that Walker Kessler had 15 points and 15 rebounds on Monday. Dan has no strong view on the NBA side, as he is mostly an NFL guy.

Closing

Matt reminds listeners that TSMx is licensed in 22 states plus Washington D.C., that players must be 21 or older, and that comments are welcome on YouTube and in the Discord. Dan lists upcoming features: multiple spread options, quarter lines, half lines, and futures. There is a special offer of $10 in TSMx credit for new sign-ups, and he invites users to talk to the team, give feedback, and join the Discord, adding that it is a refreshing change from large companies where it is hard to reach a human. Whether you tail the NFL Week 9 2026 picks or make your own order, Matt closes with the show’s central point: every time you cut out the vig, it makes your sports week.

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