Cincinnati Reds BREAK the LOSING STREAK, beat San Diego Padres in EXTRA INNINGS | Breakdown Analysis

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After another brutal late-inning loss Monday night, the Cincinnati Reds (31-34) look to snap a five-game losing streak in the second game of their series against the San Diego Padres (34-31). The two clubs may be going in the same wrong direction, but tonight's pitching matchup gives Cincinnati a clear edge on paper.

Burns will be making his 13th start of 2026, and over 70.1 innings of work the right-hander has posted a 2.05 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts. The 23-year-old has allowed more than two earned runs only once this season. Burns has firmly put himself in the NL Cy Young conversation, and on the road he's been especially sharp — compiling a 2.71 FIP while averaging 12.30 strikeouts per nine innings against just 1.80 walks per nine.

There is one wrinkle to monitor, however. If there's a part of Burns' game that has shown vulnerability this season, it's against left-handed batters — seven of the nine home runs he's allowed have come from lefty hitters, and lefties are getting on base at a .306 clip against him. He has also surrendered a home run in each of his last three starts. San Diego's lineup will need to exploit that tendency if they hope to hang in this one.

On the other side, Lucas Giolito has labored through his last two outings — throwing 77 pitches in only 2.2 innings in Washington before lasting just four innings on 74 pitches in Philadelphia. On the season, Giolito carries a 4.86 ERA and a bloated 1.74 WHIP over 16.2 innings, with 11 strikeouts against 13 walks. That kind of control issue is a recipe for trouble against any offense.

The Padres have problems beyond the mound, too. San Diego is batting just .203 against starting pitchers this season — the lowest mark in MLB — and their overall team batting average of .215 also ranks last in the league.

Monday's series opener saw San Diego take it 6-2, handing the Reds their fifth straight loss while the Reds managed nine hits but only two runs. Cincinnati will need to convert tonight, because squandering a Chase Burns start would be a tough pill to swallow.
With Burns dealing and Giolito scuffling, the Reds have every reason to snap their skid tonight — if the bats can show up at Petco Park.