What I Bet - Friday July 10

Griffin Warner talks betting for Friday.
Griffin Warner opens the latest episode of the What I Bet podcast with a full breakdown of the biggest remaining World Cup quarterfinal, Belgium against Spain, before working through the entire Major League Baseball card and landing on the night's featured best bet, all while riding a hot recent stretch that has the show at nine wins and four losses across its last thirteen selections. Belgium arrives having stunned the United States in Seattle, a result built on an aggressive opening from a golden generation anchored by Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne, and longtime goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, a group Warner calls the most talented in the nation's history despite years of underachievement on the international stage. He walks through how that match turned on a costly American goalkeeping mistake and frames this tournament as potentially the last realistic chance at glory for this core of Belgian players. Standing across from them is a Spanish side Warner considers more dominant than Argentina, even though Spain has looked shakier than expected this tournament, dealing with injury concerns around Lamine Yamal and fellow winger Nico Williams and needing a stoppage time goal to escape Portugal. Warner argues Spain remains a sleeping giant given its championship pedigree dating back to 2010 and its sustained run of success at the Euros, and he walks listeners through how the betting market has shifted, with Belgium drawing real money on the spread and the total climbing from two and a half goals toward two and three quarters. On the outright market to advance, Spain has moved from minus three hundred thirty five down toward minus three fifteen while Belgium has drifted back out to plus two sixty five, a swing Warner ties directly to bettors buying into the Belgian upset. From there the show pivots into the Major League Baseball card, where Warner builds his own numbers from scratch before comparing them to the market in real time. He covers bullpen concerns in Pittsburgh, a Yankees lineup trying to bounce back from a rough outing in Tampa, a Washington offense that has hit consistently all season, a Kansas City team he wants no part of, a red hot Miami bullpen, and a Boston starter pitching with something to prove after being left off the All-Star roster. He continues through matchups involving Cincinnati and Chicago, Seattle and Tampa Bay, Houston and Texas, Atlanta and St. Louis, Toronto and San Diego, Arizona and Los Angeles, and Colorado and San Francisco, offering a lean or a pass on nearly every game while explaining exactly what is driving each number. The episode closes with the night's featured best bet, Minnesota at home against the Los Angeles Angels, with Warner backing the Twins as Los Angeles wraps up a second consecutive road series heading into the All-Star break. Listeners can find the full show daily on Pregame Now and can save money on World Cup coverage and individual day picks using a promo code mentioned during the episode, good through the twentieth of July.

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