Re-Run: Predicting Future Injuries & Early Detection with Eric Hegedus (Feb, 2022)

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Predicting Future Injuries & Early Detection with Prof. Eric Hegedus

In today’s rerun episode, Brodie sits down once again with Professor Eric Hegedus—physical therapist, clinician, researcher, and one of the podcast’s favourite returning guests. Eric previously joined us in Episode 186 to dive into return-to-running principles. Today, he’s back to explore one of the hardest and most misunderstood topics in running science:

Can we actually predict running injuries?
If so, how? And what should runners do with that information?

Using insights from his 3-year prospective cohort study, Eric walks us through what physical performance tests can and cannot tell us about injury risk—and why simple movement screens like single-leg squats may be more powerful than we ever realised.

We also dive into psychosocial risk factors, early warning signs, modern wearable data, and why injury prediction research is evolving rapidly.

What This Episode Covers

• Why Eric designed a study to challenge the Functional Movement Screen (FMS)
• The 15 bodyweight performance tests studied across 360 athletes
• Which movement patterns actually mattered for overuse injuries
• The shocking finding: when motor control was considered, past injury stopped predicting future injury
• Why weak glute medius and poor ankle mobility show up repeatedly in injured runners
• How poor movement gives you “less wiggle room” before overload
• Why injury prediction today is no longer just movement → injury, but a multifactorial real-time model
• The four early warning signs of an upcoming injury episode
• Practical takeaways all runners can apply immediately

Key Insights & Takeaways

1. Movement Quality Matters More Than We Thought

Eric’s research found that poor single-leg or double-leg squat control was strongly associated with future overuse injuries—even more than past injury history.
When movement quality was poor, “past injury” no longer predicted new injury. This indicates:

• Poor motor control = major vulnerability
• Runners with poor control have less buffer when workloads fluctuate
• Runners who move well have a much larger margin for error

Symptoms of poor control during squats include:

• Knees collaps