Cash That Ticket - Thursday May 28th

Munaf Manji and Dave Essler talk betting for Thursday.
Munaf Manji and Uncle Diamond Dave Essler take on a focused Thursday card on Cash That Ticket, covering Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Finals and three all-divisional MLB matchups on the Straight Outta Vegas AM feed. The Oklahoma City Thunder arrive in San Antonio holding a 3-2 series lead with Jalen Williams listed as questionable, Ajay Mitchell officially ruled out with a right soleus calf strain, and Thomas Sorber also unavailable, while the Spurs enter with a clean injury report for an elimination game at home. The Spurs open as 3.5-point favorites at a total of 219.5, and both hosts target the under as the primary play. Dave makes the case from Game 5 numbers he considers unsustainable, including OKC shooting 48 percent from three, 70 combined free throws, 26 Spurs fast break points, and 241 total points in a San Antonio loss. He expects the Spurs to slow the pace and play one possession at a time to force a Game 7, while also noting that eight of the last nine Spurs games went over yet this total is the highest they have faced in months. Munaf goes further by also laying the 3.5 points with San Antonio, using Game 4's 103-82 result as his stylistic template, and identifies the first half total of 106.5 as a secondary under spot. On props, Dave targets Stephon Castle at plus 116 for two or more threes made, backed by five-plus attempts in four of his last five games and a Thunder defensive focus on Wembanyama that consistently opens the perimeter for Castle. Munaf backs De'Aaron Fox rebounds plus assists over 9.5 on FanDuel after the number cashed easily in Game 5, and reads Wembanyama as more likely to impact the game through scoring than rebounding given OKC box-out adjustments over the last three games. The baseball card features three 6:35 to 6:40 Eastern divisional matchups. In Baltimore, Patrick Corbin faces Chris Bassitt, who takes on his former team at Camden Yards with a sharp home-road split showing a 3.46 ERA at home against an 8.02 on the road. Dave leans Toronto at the underdog price, while Munaf backs the Orioles and over 8.5, noting Pete Alonso as a home run prop candidate and Corbin's career struggles against Baltimore. In Pittsburgh, Paul Skenes draws the Cubs in a spot where the data runs against his reputation. In four home starts against Chicago, Skenes has never completed five innings, owns a 5.60 ERA, and has allowed 11 earned runs and five home runs in 17.1 innings against Cubs bats. Winds blow out at 13 miles per hour at PNC Park and both hosts back the over 7.5 with the Cubs first five innings money line as a supporting play. The rubber match between Houston and Texas closes the card with Spencer Arrighetti facing Nathan Eovaldi. These starters combined for more than 14 innings and zero runs when they each faced these same opponents roughly two weeks earlier. Dave makes the Astros first five innings plus 0.5 runs at minus 120 his official best bet, keeping Houston's struggling bullpen out of the equation while the half-run cushion protects a tie after five. Munaf takes the first five under, citing Eovaldi's streak of six-plus innings in five straight starts and a seven-inning Astros shutout on May 17th as reasons the total stays low early. Best bets for Thursday are the Astros first five plus 0.5 runs from Dave and Cubs-Pirates over 7.5 from Munaf. Use promo code NERD50 at pregame.com to save $50 on Munaf's Sports Nerd All Access to All Star Break package and get every pick across every sport through the MLB All Star break for $199, approximately 48 days of full coverage at the price of a standard 30-day subscription.

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