NFL DFS Strategy Masterclass: Game Theory, Stacking & How to Actually Win

Pat Mayo welcomes Mike Leone from Establish The Run to break down how to win at NFL Daily Fantasy Football. They discuss the evolution of modern DFS, what contest sims have taught high-stakes players, contest selection, how to build proper game stacks (small field vs. large field), running back vs. wide receiver variance, flipping the build, and managing variance and expectations over a full NFL season.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Early Season Uncertainty & Double Leverage
1:10 Welcome to PME: Mike Leone & Modern DFS Evolution
2:15 How DFS Changed Over the Last Decade
3:15 Is "Play the Best Plays" Dead in Cash Games?
4:00 What Contest Sims Teach Us About Game Theory
5:05 Balancing Chalk vs. High Ceiling Contrarian Plays
7:00 Small-Field High Stakes (The Thunderdome) vs. Large-Field GPPs
8:05 Contest Selection: Setting Realistic Sweat & Win Expectations
10:10 Managing Emotions & Avoiding Negative EV "Safe" Builds
13:10 Stacking Strategy: Large Field vs. Small Field Lineup Construction
14:25 Massive Game Stacks & Slates with Low Totals
16:10 Overlooked High Team Totals in Low Game Total Matchups
17:45 Concentrated Offenses vs. Spread-Out Passing Attacks
18:25 4for4 Tools & Momentous
20:20 Identifying Highly Concentrated NFL Offenses for DFS
22:30 Building from Scratch: $100 Single Entry Blueprint
24:50 When to Eat Chalk: RB vs. WR Variance
26:25 Stacking Teammates Without the Quarterback
27:20 Davis Mattek Hype Trains & Terrence Ferguson Jokes
29:35 Correlating Running Backs with Defenses
30:20 Same-Team RB + WR Stacking
32:45 Tight End Strategy: Cheap Punts vs. Double Tight End Builds
33:30 Flipping the Build & Finding Compounding Leverage
37:35 Base Projections vs. 85th-100th Percentile Ceiling Outcomes
41:00 How to Pick DFS Defenses (Sim Rules & Pressure Spots)
44:05 Buying Early on Coaching Changes, New Roles & Unknowns
47:55 CarGurus & Shopify
50:05 Exploiting O-Line Injuries & Turnover-Prone Matchups
51:35 Week 1 DFS Traps & Early Pricing Dynamic
53:05 Season-Long & DFS Debate: Kenneth Walker, Derrick Henry & RBs
56:45 Chase Brown & DJ Moore Outlook
1:01:05 Week 1 Spot: DJ Moore vs. Houston Texans
1:02:25 Bankroll Variance, 2v2 Decisions & Long-Term EV
1:05:05 Selecting Between Multiple Builds for Single Entry
1:06:50 Mike Leone's Content Schedule at Establish The Run
1:07:45 Wrap-Up: Final Takeaways & Managing Expectations

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