Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith get you ready for the CFB 2025 season.

🎯 Pittsburgh over 6.5 wins: Pat Narduzzi’s defensive core, featuring Kyle Lewis and Rasheem Biles, plus RB Des Reid’s 1,500+ yards of production, sets the foundation .

📉 Arizona State under 8.5 wins: Losing Cam Scadaboo’s 2,300+ yards and facing a schedule with Mississippi State, Baylor, and Utah makes sustaining success unlikely .

📉 Oregon under 10.5 wins: QB Dante Moore’s inexperience and just one returning O-line starter threaten offensive stability .

📉 South Carolina under 7.5 wins: Despite elite athletes like Sellers and Dillon Stewart, poor O-line play and defensive losses spell regression .

📈 Miami’s playoff value: Carson Beck thrives in a less demanding ACC, backed by strong protection and weapons .

📈 SMU’s high-ceiling schedule: Early matchups vs Baylor and TCU provide resume-building chances despite roadblocks like Clemson .

📈 Louisville as a sleeper: Offensive system continuity and favorable home games against top teams make them a playoff dark horse .

📊 Playoff odds snapshot: LSU (+130), Miami (+175), Ole Miss (+170), and Louisville (3-1) stand out as potential value bets .

🔢 Critical stretches: South Carolina’s brutal LSU-Oklahoma-Alabama-Ole Miss-Texas A&M stretch likely defines their season .

🧠 Coaching & system insights: Dan Lanning’s first season without a veteran QB at Oregon raises big offensive questions, while Kenny Dillingham’s Arizona State faces depth challenges .

Pittsburgh’s Path to 7 Wins (0:32–12:00) – Griffin and Lonte outline Pitt’s 7.35 projected wins, highlighting Pat Narduzzi’s defensive focus and RB Des Reid’s Darren Sproles-like dual-threat ability. QB Eli Holstein’s leash may be short with Cole Gonzalez waiting .
Arizona State’s Regression (13:23–20:13) – With Cam Scadaboo’s 24-touchdown production gone, Lonte foresees a major offensive dip. Defensive pass rush remains a huge weakness against pass-heavy Big 12 offenses .
Oregon’s QB Transition (22:14–28:22) – New starter Dante Moore faces Big Ten defenses with only one O-line starter returning. The Ducks’ WR group also lacks proven playmakers, raising major concerns .
South Carolina’s Harsh Reality (29:45–38:53) – Elite athletes like Sellers and Dillon Stewart can’t offset O-line deficiencies (40.1% pressure rate allowed) and defensive attrition from five drafted players .
Miami’s Playoff Dark Horse (40:12–43:05) – Carson Beck steps into a loaded Miami offense with top-tier O-line support, benefiting from an ACC schedule lacking Clemson .

over 6.5 wins

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