What I Bet - Friday January 23rd

Griffin Warner talks betting for this weekend. Griffin Warner delivered a wide ranging betting breakdown for the Friday January 23 slate, touching the NFL European soccer and college basketball while explaining how market movement and situational factors shaped his approach. In the NFL focus centered on a playoff matchup with New England favored by four and a half and a total of forty two and a half amid concerns about travel weather and quarterback volatility. Warner noted limited line movement but said his interest continued to grow on Denver, citing the difficulty of New England going on the road as a sizable favorite and the belief that the market may be overstating the drop off at quarterback. He outlined interest in Denver for the game and first half along with multiple under looks, emphasizing the value of the first half under at twenty and a half. The night game featured the Rams as short road underdogs in Seattle with the total dipping into the mid forty six range. Warner pointed to recent head to head results, injuries and special teams swings, arguing the teams are closely matched and that buying the Rams up to a field goal held value if the market allowed. The soccer card opened in Spain with Levante hosting Elche, where Warner leaned toward the road underdog and the under in a matchup between promoted sides. In Italy he highlighted Inter hosting Pisa, expecting the visitors to slow the match and identifying under three goals as the most appealing angle if the number rose. In France he discussed PSG on the road as a heavy favorite, preferring to wait for a larger plus price on the host rather than laying goals away from home. Germany’s marquee rivalry between St Pauli and Hamburg drew interest primarily on a low scoring script, with Warner favoring the under given St Pauli’s scoring issues. On the college basketball slate he touched on rescheduled games and several notable lines, including St Louis laying a significant number at St Bonaventure, Indiana favored at Rutgers, a rare large underdog role for Marquette at Butler, Michigan laying a big number to Ohio State, and Utah State at Colorado State where home court and roster absences factored into the handicap. Warner closed by reiterating his primary wager for the episode as Denver plus four and a half and shared a promotional discount for bettors looking to follow along.

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