What I Bet - Monday April 20th

Griffin Warner talks betting for Monday.
Griffin Warner is back for episode 32 of What I Bet on the Straight Outta Vegas AM feed, recording late on April 20 and covering three sports on the holiday Monday card — European soccer, the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs first round, and a full MLB slate — opening with a transparent note that the previous best bet on the Braves-Phillies over did not cash after Atlanta scored nine runs and Philadelphia was shut out with zero. In Serie A, Griffin leans Lecce plus one quarter as a home underdog against Fiorentina, a club stretched thin by Europa Conference League commitments, and finds the under at two and a quarter goals equally appealing given Lecce's deeply defensive profile. In the Premier League, he is waiting for West Ham to reach plus one quarter before playing the side against Crystal Palace, whose manager Oliver Glasner is expected to depart at the end of the season, with the under two and a half his biggest interest for now. On the NHL side, Scott Seidenberg of Pregame.com contributed useful playoff totals history showing last year's playoff average posted total was 5.8 against an average outcome of 6.2, suggesting some market adjustment potential. Griffin fades the Pittsburgh Penguins at minus 152 in Game 2 of their Battle of Pennsylvania series and backs the Philadelphia Flyers at plus 134 after the Pens' weak Game 1 performance. He is genuinely unimpressed by the Carolina Hurricanes despite their 2-0 shutout win over Ottawa and finds the Senators at plus 128 in Game 2 a live underdog play. Minnesota's dominant 6-1 road win in Game 1 over the Dallas Stars makes the Wild plus 115 and over six his two plays in that series, while in the Oilers-Ducks Game 1 opener he leans the over six and a half rather than backing Anaheim outright despite acknowledging the upset potential his stepdad is calling for. On the MLB side he covers the full card from the Patriots Day early game featuring Jack Flaherty at plus 124 for Detroit against Sonny Gray and the Red Sox, through Spencer Arrighetti starting for the injury-depleted Astros against Slade Cecconi in Cleveland where he backs the Guardians at minus 113, to the Cardinals-Marlins under eight lean with Michael McGreevey's poor underlying numbers a concern, the Braves too expensive at minus 160 on the road despite Bryce Elder's excellent start, the Cubs at plus 102 at home against Aaron Nola with Philadelphia's defense and inconsistency making home value on Colin Rea the right play, the Royals at plus 104 with Seth Lugo against Kyle Bradish and an overvalued Baltimore club, the over at Coors Field with Justin Wrobleski facing José Quintana, over eight with Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays against Reed Detmers and the Angels, and the under eight in the Athletics-Mariners finale with J.T. Ginn a scary arm to back in Seattle against Emerson Hancock. Official best bet is the Chicago Cubs plus 102 at home behind Colin Rea. Promo code PITCH20 at Pregame.com for 20 percent off anything through April 27.

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